Category Archives: Iran

11Oct/19

A war in their terms or ours?

By Nir Boms and Shayan Arya

By Nir Boms and Shayan Arya , Levant News

By: Nir Boms and Shayan Arya

The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been escalating beyond rhetoric and is fast moving into an actual military confrontation. Following a long round of proxy moves from Yemen – as well as an attempts to stop oil tankers in the Persian gulf – Iran have crossed another escalation threshold with a recent a missile attack on the Saudi Abqaiq oil field. Condemnations and additional sanctions have already taken their course and seem to have frustrated the Islamic regime even further. Yet, these measures did not stop Iranian actions such as last week seize of another ship as well as the announcement on newusage of advanced centrifuges in violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Judging from current trajectory, these last moves will again likely to result in additional rounds of sanction or “limited escalations.” However, sooner or later, a new strategy will be required as the current one is having little effect on Iran’s motivation to destabilize oil markets and continue it’s path of nuclear and proxy confrontation.

Few seek another war in the Middle East. But will that likely leave the victory in the hands of Iran’s supreme leader and its top military operator, Qasem Suleimani?

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09Sep/19

Iraq, a battlefield of global and regional rivalries

Attention in the Middle East has gradually returned to a country, which in recent years seemed to have faded from its center stage prominence. The country in question: Iraq, is fighting remnants of the Islamic State, which lives on through its hold on key religious and ideological institutions. The Central Government in Baghdad is also trying to avoid collapse, due to various ethnic components pulling Iraq apart, while at the same time it contends with the ongoing stand-off between Iran and its regional adversaries.
Panel:
– Jonathan Hessen, host.
– Amir Oren, analyst.
– Dr. Eran Lerman vice president of the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security and a lecturer at Shalem College.
– Dr. Nir Boms, Research fellow, Moshe Dayan center at Tel Aviv University.

21Jan/18

The Unraveling Islamic Republic

Iran’s power posturing is designed to disguise the fact that the country is weakening from within.

 

The recent unrest in Iran has confirmed what many attuned to domestic conditions in the Islamic Republic have long known: that an explosion was not a matter of if, but of when.

The destructive reach of the Islamic Republic of Iran from Africa to South America and via Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq is hardly disputed. Yet this destructive influence serves the hesitance of many in the West to confront what appears as a strong and threatening regime. The riots and demonstration may have faded – but not the realities that created them. And this might provide an important policy lesson: Islamic regime’s power posturing is designed to hide its true weaknesses.

Iran’s economy is in shambles. The days of high oil prices are long gone, and national resources are almost depleted. Despite the JCPOA – an agreement aimed at opening the Iranian market to international investors – Iran’s economy remains in stagflation, with very little prospects for improvement in sight. Iran’s military is over-extended in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, putting further strain on the limited available resources. Inefficient economic policies and endemic corruption waists the rest of the available resources leaving very little for the masses.

In the months and weeks leading up to the current protests, thousands had already taken to the streets in most major cities in the country, demanding an answer to these deficiencies and corruptions.

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