Category Archives: Middle East

02Jul/25

Why al-Sharaa’s success in Syria is good for Israel and the US?

Syria, , , , , ,

By Itai Melchior and Nir Boms/ Atlantic Council

Israel’s approach to Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has become more assertive, driven by security fears that were intensified by the trauma of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. For Jerusalem, the emergence of the interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s transitional government is a double-edged sword that could serve as an opportunity for strategic realignment, but also poses latent threats.

Although al-Sharaa’s rise has rightfully generated considerable concern given his jihadist background, the new Syrian government’s first six months has had notable positive developments. This includes the presentation of a pragmatic agenda that has emphasized power-sharing, minority rights, and economic development.

Further bolstering his international standing, al-Sharaa secured broad sanctions relief from the United States after a meeting with President Donald Trump in Saudi Arabia.

The US president’s recent executive order lifting Syria sanctions, signed on June 30, states that “the United States is committed to supporting a Syria that is stable, unified, and at peace with itself and its neighbors.” al-Sharaa also assuaged fears about potential nuclear activity after he offered full cooperation and access to the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency after a visit by the agency’s Director General Rafael Grossi in early June.

Although al-Sharaa has made several moves that should reassure Israeli decision makers: refraining from engaging with Hamas, expelling factions of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and Hamas, arresting two senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad figures, and trying to thwart smuggling operations between Iran and Hezbollah across Syria—they appear unconvinced.

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09Jun/25

New Syria in the Making—Challenges and Opportunities for Israel

Israel, Middle East, Syria, , , , ,

Nir Boms and Stephane Cohen, Nexus,

The surprise attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which began on November 27, 2024, and resulted in the fall of Damascus in less than two weeks, caught many by surprise—including President Bashar al-Assad, who fled the city on December 7, 2024. Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has so far adopted a pragmatic approach as he seeks to build a new Syria. His vision focuses on creating an inclusive Syrian National Project that aims to guarantee the rights and place of Syria’s diverse ethnic and ideological groups. While this new vision aligns with that of moderate regional partners, the challenges ahead remain immense. A series of ethnic clashes—resulting in two massacres, one in the coastal Alawite region and another targeting the Druze community—raises questions about the ability of the new government to implement a transformed Syria.

Success means creating a power-sharing model, which is the only way to potentially gain the support of most Syrians. But not all seek to share power, and many still doubt the leadership of a former jihadist now backed by Islamists. Six months after Assad’s fall, Israel bombed the new government palace in Damascus for the first time, sending a signal to the new Syrian government that it had not done enough to prevent a massacre in the Druze areas of Damascus. As Israel assesses whether the new Syrian administration is a potential ally or a new enemy, there may still be time to engage with those in Syria committed to building a different future for the country.

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10May/25

Beyond the Brink: Israel’s Strategic Opportunity in Syria

Syria, , ,

What does Syria look like five months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad — both on the Syrian side and on the Israeli side of the border — and what are the risks and opportunities facing decision-makers in Jerusalem?



Nir Boms, Carmit Valensi, Mzahem Alsaloum

On December 8, 2024, Syria experienced a historic turning point with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. This dramatic development has ushered in a new phase of uncertainty and transition, offering both risks and opportunities. While it is still too early to determine Syria’s long-term trajectory, the new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has made cautious moves to stabilize the country. However, Israel’s initial reaction—shaped by security anxieties and the trauma of the October 7 attack—has resulted in a militarized and unilateral approach that risks overlooking emerging diplomatic openings and reinforcing old patterns of confrontation. This article examines the unfolding dynamics in Syria, the risks of an overly reactive Israeli policy, and the strategic opportunities that could emerge if Israel shifts from a posture of fear to one of cautious engagement. A recalibrated approach might not only improve Israeli security but also reshape the broader regional landscape.

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