Category Archives: Iran

25Apr/20

A Chernobyl Moment in Tehran

Also available in العربية

Fikra Forum, April 24, 2020

As several states seem to experiment with opening up, Iran has made headlines as one of the countries experimenting with a gradual reopening of the country. However, the Iranian regime’s consistent mishandling of the crisis raises the question of whether this reopening too will be mismanaged, and whether the country will reach a point where the alienation felt by the Iranian public be enough to be a major tipping point for the regime.

Iran’s failures during the coronavirus crisis has presented a sort of existential crisis for the regime. Its early inability to admit to, much less contain the outbreak—and its subsequent inability to manage the public health response required by COVID19, have shown the regime’s indifference to the wellbeing of the its own people, steadily increasing the public’s sense of alienation.

The catastrophe that has unfolded in Iran is in several ways reminiscent of history’s worst nuclear accident, which occurred in the former Soviet Union just 34 years ago. Many mark the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which killed thousands, as the moment that led to the downfall of the Soviet Union five years later. More than anything else, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster helped the people of Soviet Union realize that they had been systematically lied to by the Soviet regime for over 70 years. As Soviet leaders scrambled to cover up the disaster, their denials and concurrently slow efforts to contain the leak demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice human lives in order not to embarrass the state. This undeniable reality as the Chernobyl disaster became too large to hide and prompted even loyal citizens to question their government—this stark example of state failure helped the entire system begin to unravel. 

The slow reaction of the current Iranian Regime, like Soviet leaders, revealed their total disregard for their own people, gradually shattering the illusion of supremacy. In the former USSR, this disillusionment opened a path to a stronger “Perestroika,” which in turn unraveled the mechanisms of fear that had helped keep the regime apparatus in place. And while the dynamics of the two states are different in many ways, the stakes of a potential Chernobyl moment in Iran are just as high for the region and the world.

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08Dec/19

The Fuel of a Revolution

Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Iran in recent weeks, after the government announced a tripling of the price of gasoline. Credit: Belga

Faced with crippling international sanctions, revenue shortfalls and budget deficits, the Islamic regime in Iran seems to have made a fatal miscalculation by suddenly tripling the price of gasoline, a move which appears to put an entire region in flames.

Frustrated by worsening economic conditions, soaring prices and devastating national currency devaluation, Iranians from across the country immediately took the streets to demand a reversal of the decision. But what seemed to have started as a peaceful civil demonstration – in where drivers turned off their vehicles in the middle roads and highways  –  quickly escalated to a full-fledged uprising in nearly 100 cities. But not just in Iran. In Iraq, protesters burned the Iranian consulate in the holy city of Najaf and in Lebanon hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets, demanding the resignation of a government dominated by pro-Iran factions.

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11Oct/19

A war in their terms or ours?

By Nir Boms and Shayan Arya

By Nir Boms and Shayan Arya , Levant News

By: Nir Boms and Shayan Arya

The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been escalating beyond rhetoric and is fast moving into an actual military confrontation. Following a long round of proxy moves from Yemen – as well as an attempts to stop oil tankers in the Persian gulf – Iran have crossed another escalation threshold with a recent a missile attack on the Saudi Abqaiq oil field. Condemnations and additional sanctions have already taken their course and seem to have frustrated the Islamic regime even further. Yet, these measures did not stop Iranian actions such as last week seize of another ship as well as the announcement on newusage of advanced centrifuges in violation of the 2015 nuclear agreement.

Judging from current trajectory, these last moves will again likely to result in additional rounds of sanction or “limited escalations.” However, sooner or later, a new strategy will be required as the current one is having little effect on Iran’s motivation to destabilize oil markets and continue it’s path of nuclear and proxy confrontation.

Few seek another war in the Middle East. But will that likely leave the victory in the hands of Iran’s supreme leader and its top military operator, Qasem Suleimani?

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09Sep/19

Iraq, a battlefield of global and regional rivalries

Attention in the Middle East has gradually returned to a country, which in recent years seemed to have faded from its center stage prominence. The country in question: Iraq, is fighting remnants of the Islamic State, which lives on through its hold on key religious and ideological institutions. The Central Government in Baghdad is also trying to avoid collapse, due to various ethnic components pulling Iraq apart, while at the same time it contends with the ongoing stand-off between Iran and its regional adversaries.
Panel:
– Jonathan Hessen, host.
– Amir Oren, analyst.
– Dr. Eran Lerman vice president of the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security and a lecturer at Shalem College.
– Dr. Nir Boms, Research fellow, Moshe Dayan center at Tel Aviv University.