Tag Archives: Bashar Assad


Military deployments in Syria; Assessing the battlefield 

Syria was once a proud sovereign country, hostile to the designs of stronger Arab nations such as Iraq and Egypt to gain control over it by inserting their military into its territory as part of alliances. But faced with a fight for survival, Bashar Assad invited Iranian troops, Hezbollah and other proxies and eventually the Russian military to help him gain the upper hand in the civil war. Meanwhile, American forces started operating in other parts of Syria against the Islamic State; and Turkey invaded the North in order to cordon-off the Kurdish underground. In recent months, with the war in Ukraine resetting Moscow’s focus, there have been changes in the deployments of most foreign forces in Syria. What happened and what are the projected trends?

Panel: – Host : Jonathan Hessen

– Amir Oren : Editor at Large, Host of Watchmen Talk and Powers in Play

– Dr. Nir Boms, Research fellow, Moshe Dayan center at Tel Aviv University

– LT. COL. Sarit Zehavi CEO & Founder of Alma Research & Education Center.


Iran and the New State of Play in Southwest Syria

In the summer of 2018, the Asad regime reestablished its control over the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, restoring Syrian sovereignty and redeploying the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to its pre-war positions. However, a deeper look at the developments across the Syrian-Israeli frontier reveals that the new reality is substantially different from pre-civil war Syria. The Syrian military bases today host a number of new actors, which include pro-Iranian militias, Russian military police, and reconfigured Syrian units under new command. The local leadership and elements identified with the opposition, who informally governed these areas before the Asad regime reestablished control, have fled or been killed. In its place is a new Syrian security architecture that is based, in part, on foreign actors (some with Syrian identity cards), who are playing the role that used to be reserved for the Syrian security apparatus.

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Syria, a day before tomorrow

Three scenarios appear plausible for Syria’s future: agreed transition; segregation; or disintegration. It is imperative that friends of Syria help Syrians create a scenario they can live with.

The Commentator



AMMAN – In 1942, Winston Churchill famously drew a distinction between “the end of the beginning” and “the beginning of the end”. That distinction is equally applicable to the unfolding crisis in Syria.

While intense battles continue in Idlib, Aleppo and Damascus, equally intense discourse is  already in full swing  anticipating the “day after” or the beginning of post-Assad Syria.

Undoubtedly, the Syrian revolution has reached a critical point. Despite equipment shortages and government brutality, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) has been able to show some significant advances. Following the successful planting of the bomb that killed three top inner circle officials, the FSA now effectively controls most of the border crossings between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, and with them, the critical supply lines from Iran which has thus far kept the regime afloat.

Some of the FSA’s recent strides can be attributed to the growing list of defectors that now includes generals, pilots, diplomats and even inner-circle officials like Brig-Gen Manaf Tlas, the son of former defense minister Mustapha Tlas and a recent close ally of Assad.

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Treasure in the Midst of Syrian Chaos

As intense battles continue in Aleppo and Damascus and as the future of Syria remains uncertain, it is becoming clear who will ultimately lose this round in the Middle East Spring. Aside from the Assad Regime and his Alawite clan, if Syria falls into the hands of the opposition, the two biggest losers will be Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah. The two continue to fight despite the fact that it is unlikely that Assad will prevail, but at the same time they are also getting ready to cut their losses and focus on one important front: Intelligence. The Iran-Syria-Hezbollah triangle has been operating for decades, well before Bashar replaced his Father Hafiz Al-Assad in June 2000.

It is well known that Syria provided a safe haven for some of the most notorious Hezbollah terrorists. One such terrorist is Imad Mughniyeh who was linked to some of the worst attacks in America, Israel and even in Arab countries. Mughniyeh was eventually assassinated in 2008 in Damascus. Iran has been Hezbollah’s main sponsor since the early 1980s, contributing between 60 to 100 million dollars a year. A Pentagon report on the post-2006 Lebanon war period documents an increase of up to $200 million dollars in Hezbollah support from Iran, this in addition to millions more in weapons, training and logistical support. Hezbollah’s significant seed money helped them develop further sources of revenue. Hezbollah operates a drug trafficking operation that stretches from South America to Western Africa. These operations are headquartered in places like Brazil, where over 6 million people with Lebanese roots reside, and the Ivory Coast, home to 80,000 Lebanese residents. The RAND Corporation estimates that $20 million of Hezbollah’s funding each year is from the Tri-Border Area (Paraguay-Argentina-Brazil). In addition to using these funds to finance terrorist activities, Hezbollah also funnels them towards social welfare programs which help them maintain popularity and political influence in Lebanon.

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