Tag Archives: Iran

05Jul/22

Israel and Syria: A Decade of War

Nir Boms &  Stéphane Cohen 

Happy to share my latest long-form article that summarizes  over a  decade of Israeli involvement  in Syria following the Syrian uprising-turned-war that began on March of 2011. The article summarizes a decade of work on the subject that became central to my work  and that also serves as a  fascinating chapter of Israeli foreign policy  which included an unprecedented humanitarian operation at its core. In the last decade, I had the chance of meeting hundreds  of Syrians. The engagement with Syrians happened  in   Syrian Refugee camps; on the ground with the Free Syrian Army; at Israeli hospitals that treated over 5,000 of them; in Jordan, Turkey, Europe and elsewhere where some of the first meetings between Syrians and Israelis took place; and, also, around my Shabbat table  which hosted many Syrian friends and partners throughout last decade.  All of that resulted in what I hope you will find as a useful analysis.

The enclosed, written with my friend and partner for this work Stéphane Cohen attempts to summarize a decade of Israeli involvement in Syria.

In August 2021, Israel and Lebanon marked fifteen years since the start of the Second Lebanon War. A month later, in September, the world marked twenty years since the 9/11 terror attacks and the end of the United States and NATO campaign in Afghanistan. But the year 2021 also marked ten years since the beginning of the war in Syria that continues despite the attempts to stabilize the country and begin rehabilitation efforts.


Eleven years ago, in Daraa, Syria—not far from Israel’s northern border—antiregime protests broke out following the arrests of Syrian teenagers responsible for antigovernmental graffiti. The “boys that started the Syrian revolution” quickly became one of its icons, and Daraa one of its symbols. A decade later, in 2021, it seems that little has changed. Bashar al-Assad continues to serve as Syria’s president, sworn in for seven more years1 (a fourth term) as he receives renewed legitimacy among the ranks of the Arab League and even in Israel. The Syrian army and its security forces—the same ones who “won” the war in 2018—continue to fight an insurgency in the south. Syrians are killed from both sides—regime and opposition alike (“Syrians,” as the war taught us, became a relative term for militias and foreign fighters on both sides). In the summer of 2021, shortly after the presidential elections, the regime decided to put an end to the bloody insurgency in southern Syria and sent troops, supported by Iranian proxies, to again crush defiant Daraa.

Although Daraa continues to burn, a decade of war has brought tectonic change to Syria, just like it altered the way Israel engaged with that country, its people,
and the Syrian arena at large. A decade of Israeli policy and involvement in Syria will be examined here, and some initial insights about the years ahead will be
offered

Full article in Israeli Journal of Foreign Affairs here

17Apr/22

New Tensions in Israel – an Update 

For several years now, Israel’s domestic security situation was considered relatively good, with long periods of quiet occasionally punctured by few incidents and frequent reports of air strikes against hostile targets in neighboring countries.
Military Intelligence nevertheless continued to issue strategic alerts regarding an outbreak of violence emanating from the West Bank, due either to internal Palestinian tensions or individual frustrations. Whatever the cause, the warnings were proved correct with a series of deadly attacks on civilians in major urban centers.
With fear turning to panic, Israel’s political and security leaders tried to go on the offensive, responding to the series of terror attacks with “Operation Waves Breaker,” particularly focused on the Palestinian Authority district of Jenin.
How effective can such missions be and what are the possible repercussions?
Panel:
– Amir Oren, Host; Editor at Large, Host of Watchmen Talk and Powers in Play.
– Brig. Gen. (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, Project Director on Middle East Developments, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
– Dr. Nir Boms, Research Fellow, Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.
– Col. (Res.) Reuven Ben-Shalom, TV7 Powers-in-Play Panelist, Cross-Cultural Strategist and Associate at ICT, Reichman University.

23Oct/20

Iran’s Fear of the Popular Figure: The Execution of Navid Afkari

Also available in العربية

October 21, 2020

Navid Afkari, a 27 year-old Iranian wrestling champion who won numerous medals, had rarely lost a fight in his life. There was, however, one struggle he could not win. Following torture and a forced confession, Navid was executed earlier this month following a verdict by the Iranian Supreme Court. 

Navid Afkari, along with his two brothers Vahid and Habib, were found guilty of participating in the nationwide protest that engulfed Iran in August 2018, along with several other charges that included insulting the supreme leader, waging war against God, and murder. Vahid and Habib were handed prison sentences of 54 years and 27 years respectively. Both were also sentenced to 74 lashes and are still behind bars.

Navid’s execution demonstrates that Iran’s decision earlier this year to commute the execution sentence of three young men represented an exception rather than a potential shift inside the country. Iran had halted the executions of three young protestors—Amirhossein Moradi, Mohammad Rajabi, and Saeed Tamjidi—under the pressure of an online campaign that attracted millions of tweets and a hashtag protesting their sentence.

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25Apr/20

A Chernobyl Moment in Tehran

Also available in العربية

Fikra Forum, April 24, 2020

As several states seem to experiment with opening up, Iran has made headlines as one of the countries experimenting with a gradual reopening of the country. However, the Iranian regime’s consistent mishandling of the crisis raises the question of whether this reopening too will be mismanaged, and whether the country will reach a point where the alienation felt by the Iranian public be enough to be a major tipping point for the regime.

Iran’s failures during the coronavirus crisis has presented a sort of existential crisis for the regime. Its early inability to admit to, much less contain the outbreak—and its subsequent inability to manage the public health response required by COVID19, have shown the regime’s indifference to the wellbeing of the its own people, steadily increasing the public’s sense of alienation.

The catastrophe that has unfolded in Iran is in several ways reminiscent of history’s worst nuclear accident, which occurred in the former Soviet Union just 34 years ago. Many mark the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which killed thousands, as the moment that led to the downfall of the Soviet Union five years later. More than anything else, the 1986 Chernobyl disaster helped the people of Soviet Union realize that they had been systematically lied to by the Soviet regime for over 70 years. As Soviet leaders scrambled to cover up the disaster, their denials and concurrently slow efforts to contain the leak demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice human lives in order not to embarrass the state. This undeniable reality as the Chernobyl disaster became too large to hide and prompted even loyal citizens to question their government—this stark example of state failure helped the entire system begin to unravel. 

The slow reaction of the current Iranian Regime, like Soviet leaders, revealed their total disregard for their own people, gradually shattering the illusion of supremacy. In the former USSR, this disillusionment opened a path to a stronger “Perestroika,” which in turn unraveled the mechanisms of fear that had helped keep the regime apparatus in place. And while the dynamics of the two states are different in many ways, the stakes of a potential Chernobyl moment in Iran are just as high for the region and the world.

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