What does Syria look like five months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad — both on the Syrian side and on the Israeli side of the border — and what are the risks and opportunities facing decision-makers in Jerusalem?

Nir Boms, Carmit Valensi, Mzahem Alsaloum

On December 8, 2024, Syria experienced a historic turning point with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. This dramatic development has ushered in a new phase of uncertainty and transition, offering both risks and opportunities. While it is still too early to determine Syria’s long-term trajectory, the new leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa has made cautious moves to stabilize the country. However, Israel’s initial reaction—shaped by security anxieties and the trauma of the October 7 attack—has resulted in a militarized and unilateral approach that risks overlooking emerging diplomatic openings and reinforcing old patterns of confrontation. This article examines the unfolding dynamics in Syria, the risks of an overly reactive Israeli policy, and the strategic opportunities that could emerge if Israel shifts from a posture of fear to one of cautious engagement. A recalibrated approach might not only improve Israeli security but also reshape the broader regional landscape.