Indeed, this explanation appears to reflect one of the most basic problems involving theories that use a limited set of ideas and principles to be applied in a context of a large and diverse set of cases:  A “simple” theory  (one that relies on a small number of ideas or principles) might fail to explain a large and diverse number of cases. However,  the alternative  is not always appealing. A more complicated theory (one that involves a large number of ideas and variables) might simply be too complicated and therefore of limited utility.

About half of Wilkins’ book revolves around this question. At the core of her theoretical critique stand the works of Waltz and Wendt, with Lebanon being the relevant case study that bolsters her argument against a pure systematic approach.

Waltz  sees states  “pursuing  security  maximizing behaviors”  and  looks at  the distribution of power within the international system (and not at the state level) as the main variable explaining foreign policy of a given state entity (p. 6). Wendt’s theory  of social constructivism  uses  the  framework  of “cultural  anarchy”  to describe the interaction  between states in the international  system. Like Waltz, Wendt  assumes that  states  are rational  and  unitary  actors.  He  does take  into account, however, some variations within a state’s structure  that might influence the way it interacts  with other states. In other words, Wendt  appears  to agree that the character  and identity of a given state may influence the way it pursues foreign  policy and  that  this  foreign  policy might  not  always be  “rational” or “pursuing security maximizing behaviors.” Although Wendt is willing to recognize additional layers of analysis, his approach, Wilkins argues, is still limited, since he fails to “fully account for factors at the state and sub-state levels” (p. 8). Putting it differently (and more practically, as the case of Lebanon clearly demonstrates), Wilkins argues for a much larger role of state and sub-state  factors in shaping foreign policy and against the automatic assumption of a state as a unitary actor. Indeed, Lebanon, a divided state in which an armed group (Hizbullah) established a “state within a state” while plunging the country into an irrational war that goes against security maximizing behavior, can be a seen as a case in point.

Lebanese foreign policy, the subject of the second chapter,  is largely shaped by wars, ethnic conflicts, and competing foreign interests. Some of these struggles, such  as those between  the  Druze  and  the  Maronites,  date  back  a millennium. The Europeans  reached  the region in 1860 following a massacre of Christians by the Druze, and the French remained as “protectorate” and, later, officially, as the Mandatory  power from 1920–43. Ethnic  conflicts and foreign intervention appear to have characterized  Lebanon, which, as a geographical unit, was more diverse than its neighbors. Lebanon developed a “confessionalist model” (p. 25), a governmental system based on power sharing between the larger ethnic groups and on a balance between  its “Arab” and “Lebanese” identities.   This complex model, first codified in the 1943 National Pact, has proven difficult from its onset. In addition to the internal strife and conflicting interests, outside parties (including France,  Britain, Syria and Egypt)  all intervened  to maximize their interests,  a process that helped further fracture the delicate “confessional” structure.

 The following sections of the book leave theory aside and offer a review of events leading to the 2006 war (Chapter  3) and a detailed review of events from the perspective of the players involved (Chapter  4). Departing  from the theoretical debate and moving to historical review is not always easy, and although Wilkins succeeds in providing a fairly detailed and accurate picture of events, at times she appears to choose examples that fit theory a bit more than they fit the historical reality. Chapter  5 focuses on what Wilkins calls “internal identity groups” (or sectarian groups) and their related impact on regional players and foreign policy as a whole. She concludes that section by aptly arguing that these “internal factors” cannot be ignored. 

In describing the context of the war, Wilkins focuses on the “proxy dimension,” and concludes that from a Lebanese perspective, there was “a clash between two regional alliances that were playing out their regional and international  conflicts using their proxy actors in Lebanon” (p. 76). While it is true that Lebanon is a home to some proxy actors—or state sponsored militias (which is certainly true in the case of Hizbullah)—it  is difficult to accept Wilkins’ next point of departure. She describes the conflict as a full proxy war in which “Israel acted on behalf of the US and Hizbullah  on behalf of Iran” (p. 77). Although she reverts  to a more nuanced statement  (“despite the significant role played by regional actors, as discussed below, it seems unlikely that either Hizbullah or Israel were acting simply as surrogates  on behalf of Iran  and the US” [p. 88]), this   portrayal  of Hizbullah and  Israel as proxy players is rather simplistic.

To be sure, Lebanon can be seen as a proxy battleground between Iran and the US, but the importance of this specific arena and its influence on the timing of the war might be somewhat overstated. Wilkins aptly looks at events preceding the war, including Israel’s military operation in Gaza (“Summer Rains”), the kidnapping of Israeli  soldier Gilad Shalit,  the  arrest  of Hamas  members,  and  Hizbullah’s criticism of the lack of response by the Arab regimes to what it perceived to be an act of Israeli aggression. This is indeed the more central context that eventually led to a deterioration—and to the Hizbullah attack and kidnapping that took place on July 12, 2006—that triggered the Second Lebanon War.

Wilkins, however, appears to stress alternative explanations, quoting Israeli academics who maintain that Israel had been planning a war all along (p. 81) or an Israeli journalist who argues that “Hizbullah is the Doberman of Iran, we [Israel] are the Rottweiler of America” (p. 77). While Wilkins captures the main events leading to the war and offers an illuminating overview of statements and responses by the various parties involved, her focus on the systematic factors might serve as a good fit for the theory, but perhaps somewhat less so to the actual events on the ground. Although it is true that Israel had been preparing  for a possible war— which is the generic role of every military in the world—and that it was (and still is) evident that a conflict with Hizbullah was imminent, I believe that the specific timing and sequence of events in 2006 were more local in nature  than Wilkins depicts them.

None  of this detracts  from Wilkins’ main thesis regarding  the role of internal identity groups in forming political dynamics. Lebanon—a country built upon a delicate balance of ethnic and religious group—is certainly a relevant example of the limitation of systematic dynamics that do not take into account variables at the unit level. Wilkins further argues that identity can also weaken the institutions from within to a degree where the government is unable to implement its own foreign policy because “identity has fractured and weakened state institutions from within” (p. 125). She refers here to the increased strength and influence of Hizbullah that established an independent zone in the south of Lebanon and developed sovereign military, communication, and diplomatic capabilities that were not subject to the government of Lebanon and, at times, were in conflict with it. Therefore, Wilkins concludes, “by ignoring dynamics at the unit level and assuming that the state is a rational and unitary  actor, Waltz and Wendt’s systematic theories fail to fully account  for the factors determining  state interaction  at the international  level” (p. 125). In other words, the strength and influence of Hizbullah and the inability of the  Lebanese  government  to  control  its  activities  makes  it  impossible for Lebanon  to act as a rational and “unitary” actor, to maximize its own security interests, or to operate its own independent foreign policy.

Adopting a more pluralistic approach, Wilkins argues, will aid in the understanding of policy dynamics at state levels and beyond. For  further  study, she suggests exploring policy making in Israel (taking into account the influence of  cultural and religious groups in Israel, the Jewish communities in the US, and the US pro-Israel lobby), Egypt (looking at the emerging Muslim brotherhood,   Liberal and  Salafist camps), Iraq, or Kuwait.

While all of this is conceptually interesting and represents a compelling theoretical case, I was left asking about the extent to which Wilkins work represents  a real contribution  to the discipline. A number of scholars, such as Patrick  J. Haney, Walt Vanderbush, Jeremy Richardson, David Howard Goldberg, and Yael Yishai have written  extensively on the role of interest groups in the formation of both domestic and foreign policy. While each case study leads to a particular conclusion, it becomes evident that interests groups have a role in policy formation. Add a proxy  dynamic (which  equals significant funding,  means, and  weapons  in the case of Hizbullah), and we may  find a powerful “ interest group”  that can more easily tilt the agenda of a relatively weak state such as Lebanon. The more recent literature about failed states makes this argument in even stronger terms.

Waltz and Wendt  might not have had these types of cases in mind when they envisioned a pure  model of “security maximizing behavior” that  excludes any consideration of domestic situation. But since 1979, when he hatched this theory, Waltz has come under attack by scholars such as Howard J. Wiarda (The Neglected Factor in International Relations); Ken Booth (Realism and World Politics); and Adam R. C. Humphreys (Kenneth Waltz and the Limits of Explanatory Theory in International Relations). Wilkins joins this relatively recent wave of neo-neo-realists that insists on adding  additional  variables  to older  theories  that  appeared  to became  too simplistic for the contemporary  world in which non-state actors have increased their role and influence vis-à-vis the traditional state unit. With this in mind, The Making of Lebanese Foreign Policy: Understanding the 2006 Hezbollah–Israeli War makes a bit more sense.